NITTO ATP WORLD TOUR FINALS - Day 1 Top Tips
- charliepridmore
- Nov 9
- 2 min read
The prestigious Nitto ATP World Tour Finals kick off in Turin, and Day 1 brings two mouth-watering matchups as the sport’s elite look to make early statements. Both Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz headline our plays — and each looks primed to deliver straight-sets victories in their opening group matches.
LISTEN TO OUR ATP WORLD TOUR FINALS PODCAST HERE:
COMBINED MULTI @ 4.15
Alexander Zverev 2-0 Set Betting vs Ben Shelton @ 2.55
Carlos Alcaraz 2-0 Set Betting vs Alex De Minaur @ 1.63
ALEXANDER ZVEREV 2-0 SET BETTING vs BEN SHELTON (@ 2.55)
Few players enjoy indoor conditions as much as Alexander Zverev, a two-time ATP Finals champion (2018, 2021) who thrives on quick courts that reward his flat, precise ball-striking. Against left-handers, Zverev’s record is among the best on tour — his backhand return down the line is a natural weapon that completely blunts the lefty serve pattern out wide.
Shelton, for all his raw power and explosive athleticism, still struggles to back up his serve on quicker surfaces where time is reduced. Zverev’s experience and ability to redirect pace will make this a tactical mismatch.
Keys to the match:
Dominant vs left-handers: Zverev has an over 70% career win rate against the southpaws, consistently controlling rallies with backhand precision.
Serve + indoor hold rate: Over 85% service games held across his last five indoor events.
Surface comfort: Two-time ATP Finals champion, thrives under low-bounce, fast indoor conditions.
Expect Zverev to absorb Shelton’s first-strike aggression, extend rallies, and draw errors off the forehand wing. Once he settles into rhythm behind serve, the gap in consistency and patience should tell. Zverev 2-0 @ 2.55 looks excellent value to kick off his Turin campaign.
CARLOS ALCARAZ 2-0 SET BETTING vs ALEX DE MINAUR (@ 1.63)
Despite a modest record on indoor hard courts, Carlos Alcaraz enters this matchup with all the tactical advantages. His elite movement, ability to take the ball early, and growing confidence approaching the net make him a nightmare opponent for Alex De Minaur, whose lack of firepower limits his ability to dictate on this surface.
Alcaraz should look to construct points with heavy forehands, then transition forward to finish at the net — something he’s added more frequently to his game this season. De Minaur will chase and counter, but it’s hard to see him generating enough consistent depth to hurt Alcaraz indoors.
Keys to the match:
Head-to-head edge: Alcaraz has consistently outgunned De Minaur, using pace and angles to dominate baseline exchanges.
Net play: More efficient point construction from the Spaniard, reducing reliance on endless long rallies against a consistent baseliner like De Minaur.
Power gap: De Minaur’s lack of penetration leaves him vulnerable to Alcaraz’s all-court aggression and great movement/footspeed
If Alcaraz maintains focus on serve and avoids lengthy defensive exchanges, this should be straightforward. Expect him to dictate tempo, approach effectively, and close in straight sets (2-0 @ 1.63).
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