NBA TOP TIPS - 06/11/2025

We’re back with a clean slate for Thursday’s NBA action. Three plays stand out on our numbers and matchup reads. We’ve rolled them into a value multi for those who like to combine matches for better odds. Scroll on for the reasoning behind each selection, including pace/shot profile edges, rotation notes, and how we expect late-game scenarios to play out.

COMBINED MULTI/ACCUMULATOR @ 6.71

• Golden State Warriors -3.5 Spread

• Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 Spread

• Indiana Pacers -6.5 Spread

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -3.5 SPREAD HANDICAP vs SACRAMENTO KINGS

Golden State enter this one against a Sacramento side still searching for defensive consistency. The Kings rank among the league’s bottom third in opponent effective field goal percentage and transition points conceded, which spells danger against the Warriors’ quick-trigger offense.

Key reasons we’re backing the Dubs:

• Spacing Pressure: Sacramento’s drop coverage struggles to contain pull-up shooters; Curry thrives when defenders are forced to chase over screens.

• Ball Movement Edge: Golden State lead the NBA in assist ratio over the last five games, while Sacramento allow one of the highest assist-per-made-basket rates — a red flag against motion-heavy teams.

• Bench Minutes: The Warriors’ second unit has been producing elite defensive net ratings, often flipping momentum mid-game.

  
  

Sacramento can score, but their defensive lapses in transition and weak rotations against shooters make them vulnerable to the Warriors’ pace-and-space rhythm. Expect Golden State to pull away late and cover -3.5 with room to spare.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -2.5 SPREAD HANDICAP vs SAN ANTONIO SPURS

The Lakers host a young Spurs team led by Victor Wembanyama — a clear test of discipline versus energy. Los Angeles’ advantage here lies in size, physicality, and half-court execution. When the Lakers get downhill, they’re nearly unstoppable.

Why we like the Lakers to cover:

• Interior Mismatch: The Spurs are allowing over 54 points per game in the paint this season. The size of the Lakers could cause problems for the Spurs.

• Transition Control: The Lakers limit turnovers and defend in transition — two areas where the Spurs often leak points.

• Late-Game Reliability: San Antonio are still learning how to close games; Los Angeles, by contrast, are deliberate and physical down the stretch, using the clock and the line to their advantage.

  
  

With the Spurs likely to fade in the second half under constant rim pressure, Los Angeles should control tempo and grind out a two-possession win, comfortably covering -2.5 at home.

INDIANA PACERS -6.5 SPREAD HANDICAP vs BROOKLYN NETS

Indiana’s up-tempo offense faces a Brooklyn squad struggling to contain ball movement and defend the perimeter. The Pacers’ league-best pace and top-three assist-to-turnover ratio make them a nightmare matchup for a Nets team currently ranking bottom-five in transition defense.

Here’s why the Pacers should handle business:

• Relentless Pace: Indiana average 103 possessions per game — nearly six more than Brooklyn. Over four quarters, that differential compounds scoring separation.

• Drive-and-Kick Precision: The Pacers vision against Brooklyn’s switching scheme will create open looks on the wings.

• Defensive Matchup Fit: Indiana’s bigs can switch onto Brooklyn’s small-ball lineups without sacrificing rebounding; that’s crucial in limiting second-chance points.

  
  

The Nets’ offense has flashes, but their defense simply can’t keep up with Indiana’s tempo and shooting volume. Expect the Pacers to push the pace, stretch the lead in the third, and close strong for a cover on -6.5.